AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS
- AUD/USD down 1.10% to this point at present.
- US core PCE to dominate headlines as USD rallies.
- Neckline in focus for bears.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
The Australian greenback continues its depreciation towards the US greenback this Friday morning as basic divergence between the 2 areas complement the transfer. Yesterday’s sturdy US GDP & sturdy items orders figures bolstered the dollar whereas this mornings miss on Australian retail gross sales information (see financial calendar under) prolonged the AUD selloff.
Later at present, the US core PCE worth index launch might be on the heart of everybody’s thoughts being the Fed’s most popular measure of inflation. With estimates anticipated to fall, this will likely negate any hawkishness from yesterday’s information in addition to decreasing stagflation issues. Michigan shopper sentiment rounds off the buying and selling week and should present some help for the USD ought to precise information fall in keeping with forecasts.
AUD/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR (GMT +02:00)
Supply: DailyFX financial calendar
Cash markets nonetheless count on one other rate of interest hike from the Reserve Financial institution of Australia (RBA) presumably in late 2023/mid 2024 but when Australian financial information maintains its present trajectory, there’s room for a dovish repricing which will weigh negatively on the pro-growth foreign money.
RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES
AUD/USD DAILY CHART
Chart ready by Warren Venketas, IG
Each day AUD/USD worth motion helps my prior evaluation of a 0.6700 retest which has since performed out dipping under each the 50-day (yellow) and 200-day (blue) shifting averages respectively. Bears now look to set their sights on the 0.6596 swing low/0.6600 psychological deal with coinciding with the double high (blue) neckline.
Key resistance ranges:
- 200-day MA
- 0.6700/50-day MA
Key assist ranges:
IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BEARISH
IGCS reveals retail merchants are at present web LONG on AUD/USD, with 76% of merchants at present holding lengthy positions. At DailyFX we sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment leading to a short-term draw back disposition.
Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas
DailyFX offers foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the traits that affect the worldwide foreign money markets.