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EUR/USD: August seasonality unfavourable in 4 of final 5 years – SocGen


Economists at Société Générale analyze EUR/USD outlook.

200-WMA at 1.1184 ought to cap upside within the close to time period

August seasonality was unfavourable in 4 of the final 5 years. The unfavourable seasonality can’t be missed for the path of EUR/USD in August. 

Essentially, with European progress lagging the US and Treasury yields holding agency, promoting the Greenback continues to be a dangerous technique. A second downward shock for US CPI on 10th August might curtail constructive Greenback momentum however buyers are prone to reserve judgement till the Fed symposium at Jackson Gap in late August. 

Even after the correction final week, EUR/USD stays tactically costly vs 2y2y forwards and 10y actual fee differentials. The 200-WMA at 1.1184 ought to cap upside within the close to time period.

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