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Euro Technical Outlook – The Pullback Continues. Will EUR/USD go Decrease?


Euro, EUR/USD, US Greenback, Bollinger Bands, Volatility, Island Reversal, Fibonacci – Speaking factors

  • Euro bearishness has unfolded with some indicators having added weight
  • EUR/USD value motion has seen combined volatility outcomes with occasion danger looming
  • 1.1130 is likely to be pivotal for EUR/USD course. Will it take a look at larger?


The mid-July peak of 1.1275 traded exterior the higher band of the 21-day easy shifting common (SMA) based mostly Bollinger Band.

After it closed again contained in the band, it opened up a bearish run over the subsequent few days as mentioned right here on the time.

Not surprisingly, the width of the Bollinger Bands has narrowed as the value has retraced. This means that historic volatility has decreased. It is a measure of the value motion up to now.

On the similar time, the one month on the cash (ATM) implied volatility has been ticking larger.

It has climbed again over 7% this week after visiting under 6% in June. That is the market pricing of forward-looking value volatility.

This could not come as a shock given the occasion danger this week with financial coverage conferences for each the Federal Reserve and the European Central Financial institution.

After closing again contained in the aforementioned Bollinger Band, it has since confirmed an Island Reversal sample after it broke under 1.1133, as highlighted right here final Friday. A transfer again above 1.1133 would negate this sign.

An Island Reversal happens when there’s a hole in value motion that extends the bullish or bearish development. After the value reaches its zenith or nadir, the value motion then makes one other hole within the value in the wrong way to the place the primary hole occurred.

If the Island Reversal is unwound, the 1.1275 – 80 space might supply resistance because the excessive there on July 18th coincides with some historic breakpoints.

Additional up, resistance is likely to be on the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension of the transfer from 1.1095 to 1.0635 at 1.1380. Simply above there are some extra breakpoints within the 1.1385 – 95 space.

Close by resistance could possibly be on the breakpoints of 1.1076, 1.1095 and 1.1185.

On the draw back, help could possibly be close to the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement ranges at 1.1031 and 1.0955 respectively. Between these ranges, the breakpoint at 1.1012 might present help.

Under these ranges lie the 55- and 100-day SMAs that may lend help within the 1.0890 – 1.0900 space.

Additional down, there are a sequence of prior lows and breakpoints between 1.0830 and 1.0835 that would present a help zone.




Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the feedback part under or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter

DailyFX offers foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the tendencies that affect the worldwide forex markets.

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