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Gold Value Outlook: XAU/USD Could Stay Pressured Amid Bullish Retail Merchants


Gold, Retail Dealer Positioning, Technical Evaluation – IGCS Replace

  • Gold costs proceed aiming decrease in latest weeks
  • Retail merchants have gotten more and more bullish
  • This continues to supply a bearish contrarian sign

Gold costs have been persevering with to intention cautiously decrease in latest weeks. In response, retail merchants have been slowly boosting their upside publicity. This may be seen by looking at IG Consumer Sentiment (IGCS). The latter typically capabilities as a contrarian indicator. With that in thoughts, if retail merchants proceed to grow to be more and more bullish, will this bode unwell for the yellow steel?

Gold Sentiment Outlook – Bearish

The IGCS gauge reveals that about 76% of retail merchants are net-long gold. Because the overwhelming majority are biased to the upside, this continues to recommend that costs could hold falling down the highway. That is as upside publicity elevated by 8.75% and 27.83% in comparison with yesterday and final week, respectively. With that in thoughts, the mixture of general positioning and up to date adjustments affords a stronger bearish contrarian buying and selling bias for XAU/USD.

Gold Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

XAU/USD Every day Chart

On the every day chart, a bullish Golden Cross fashioned between the 20- and 50-day Shifting Averages (MA) in late July. Since then, nonetheless, upside progress has been missing and this has been undermining the crossover. From right here, quick assist seems to be the rising trendline from February in addition to the 1936 inflection level.

Clearing decrease would more and more provide a bearish technical bias that will converge with the IGCS sign. In any other case, the trendline is sustaining the broader bullish bias. Additional draw back progress exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement stage of 1903. The latter can also be carefully aligned with lows from June. Confirming a breakout beneath right here could open a revisit of the March low.

In any other case, a flip increased from right here locations the give attention to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement stage of 1971.63. Clearing increased affords an more and more bullish technical view, opening the door to a revisit of highs from earlier this 12 months.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Chart Created in Buying and selling View

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for

DailyFX offers foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the traits that affect the worldwide forex markets.

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