October FX Seasonality Overview:
- The tenth month of the yr sometimes sees extra optimistic outcomes for the US Greenback.
- The Euro and the Japanese Yen are inclined to underperform the remainder of the majors in October.
- October has been a greater month for each gold costs and US shares.
The start of the month warrants a evaluate of the seasonal patterns which have influenced foreign exchange markets over the previous a number of years. For October, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, each of which seize buying and selling in the course of the winddown of aggressive central financial institution intervention starting with the 2008/2009 International Monetary Disaster – not dissimilar from the surroundings we discover ourselves in now.
But firstly of the fourth quarter, as has been the case for a lot of 2022, the ahistorical surroundings has decreased the reliability of utilizing seasonality as a significant information for value motion. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to disrupt vitality markets, world provide chains stay ensnared with China’s zero-COVID technique, and developed economies are more and more nearing stagflation. Accordingly, methods primarily based round seasonality tendencies are nonetheless unreliable in comparison with earlier years.
Month-to-month Foreign exchange Seasonality Abstract – October 2022
Foreign exchange Seasonality in Euro (by way of EUR/USD)
October is a bearish month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the third worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.49%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the third worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -0.59%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in British Pound (by way of GBP/USD)
October is a combined month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the third finest month of the yr for the pair, averaging a acquire of +0.83%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the sixth worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -0.02%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in Japanese Yen (by way of USD/JPY)
October isa bullish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the third finest month of the yr for the pair, averaging a acquire of +0.38%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the second finest month of the yr, averaging a acquire of +1.08%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in Australian Greenback (by way of AUD/USD)
October is a barely bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the sixth worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.01%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the third finest month of the yr, averaging a acquire of +0.30%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in New Zealand Greenback (by way of NZD/USD)
October isa combined month for NZD/USD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the sixth worst month of the yr for the pair, averaging a lack of -0.05%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the sixth finest month of the yr, averaging a acquire of +0.22%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in Canadian Greenback (by way of USD/CAD)
October is a bullish month for USD/CAD, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fourth finest month of the yr for the pair, averaging a acquire of +0.48%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fourth finest month of the yr, averaging a acquire of +0.62%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in Swiss Franc (by way of USD/CHF)
October is a bullish month for USD/CHF, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fifth finest month of the yr for the pair, averaging a acquire of +0.51%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the second finest month of the yr, averaging a acquire of +0.60%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in US S&P 500
October isa bullish month for the US S&P 500, from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the fourth worst month of the yr for the index, averaging a acquire of +0.29%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fifth finest month of the yr, averaging a lack of +1.26%.
Foreign exchange Seasonality in Gold (by way of XAU/USD)
October is a combined month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the previous 5-years, it has been the sixth worst month of the yr for the valuable steel, averaging a acquire of +1.05%. Over the previous 10-years, it has been the fifth worst month of the yr, averaging a lack of -0.16%.
The Quiz
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— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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