October foreign exchange seasonals: It was a risky September, what comes subsequent?

At the beginning of September, I wrote in regards to the seasonals and warned that it was a foul month for inventory markets with a be aware that it was the worst calendar month for the S&P 500. It definitely delivered with an 8.7% decline.

In FX, the US greenback continued its year-long parade increased in September. It was a wild trip with unbelievable basic alternatives within the foreign exchange market. We depart the month with market individuals in a horrible temper. The AAII sentiment survey is 60.8% bearish this week and which means — for the primary time within the historical past of the survey courting again to 1987 — it is +60% for 2 weeks working. It is also solely the sixth time above 60% ever.

Everyone seems to be sensing a recession. That is often a possibility however what do the seasonals say?

• Second greatest month for AUD
• Fourth greatest month for the greenback index
• Weakest month for EUR/AUD
• Third weakest month for the euro
• Third-best month for the Nasdaq (and never far off from the most effective), although volatility is excessive with double digit beneficial properties/losses not unusual
• Fourth greatest month for the S&P 500
• Third greatest month for the DAX
• Strongest month of the 12 months for pure gasoline
• Weakest month of the 12 months for oil
• Seasonal weak point in bonds