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S&P 500 Stays Weak as Nasdaq 100 Hits New YTD Excessive



  • US Debt Ceiling and Recessionary Fears Proceed to Cap Beneficial properties.
  • Nasdaq 100 Index has Entered Bull Market Territory (Up Over 20% Since Bottoming Out). Double-Prime Sample Might Scupper Additional Upside and Result in Trendline Retest.
  • SPX Stays in a Giant Vary as Strain Builds Beneath the 4200 Deal with.
  • To Be taught Extra About Worth Motion, Chart Patterns and Shifting Averages, Try the DailyFX Training Part.

READ MORE: Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Oil Eyeing Additional Restoration as Recession and Demand Fears Persist


US Equities stay inside a spread which has develop into a theme for the reason that early yr rally light. The SPX and the Nasdaq put in marginal beneficial properties yesterday, however the ongoing indecisiveness stays. Final week’s FOMC assembly was seen as offering hope on the longer-term path for US Equities, nonetheless with barely extra readability on charges from the FED the eye has turned to a possible recession.

US Earnings have remained sturdy of late, offsetting any potential losses from the continuing fears across the US banking disaster in addition to a possible recession. Markets are additionally ready on extremely anticipated talks relating to the US Debt Ceiling as fears proceed to mount round a default which is weighing on sentiment. US President Biden is predicted to debate the debt ceiling with Republican Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (first assembly in three months), Republican Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell and Congressional Democrats later in the present day. The hope is to search out some center floor as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has continued to sound the alarm over the implications of a default for the US and World economies.


The Nasdaq 100 Index continues to grind increased printing a recent YTD excessive yesterday. The index was in its longest bear market (143 days) for the reason that 2008 monetary disaster till yesterday when the index formally entered bull market territory. The index is now up some 20% from its lows however stays 24% of the file highs set in November 2021. Taking a fast look again traditionally at previous declines by the Nasdaq 100 Index and we are able to see that the present iteration ranks favorably as compared with a decline of 22.2% in comparison with the 2008 monetary disaster with a print of 53.97%.


Waiting for the remainder of the day and the financial calendar doesn’t look all that thrilling. Federal Reserve audio system seem like the spotlight of the day as markets wait patiently on US CPI information.


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Given the shortage of threat occasions the earnings calendar is more likely to play an even bigger half in worth actions forward of US CPI tomorrow. Now we have a number of firms reporting in the present day, the chief amongst them being AirBnB, Apollo World Administration and naturally final yr’s large winner Occidental Petroleum.


For all market-moving financial releases and occasions, see the DailyFX Calendar


Market members cheered the potential finish of the Federal Reserve’s climbing cycle final week as traditionally Fairness markets have benefited from such a transfer. Present circumstances stay difficult nonetheless, with robust jobs information on Friday the likelihood of the Fed to holding charges increased for longer continues to extend. Yesterdays Fed quarterly mortgage survey confirmed tighter lending requirements and a weaker demand for credit score from giant and medium sized firms over the primary quarter. An indication that the lagging results from the climbing cycle are beginning to filter by to the financial system and will weigh additional on US equities shifting ahead.

S&P 500 Day by day Chart – Could 9, 2023


Supply: TradingView

Wanting on the day by day timeframe on the SPX and we are able to see the indecision mirrored in latest worth motion. Having printed a decrease low on April 26, worth then printed a brand new increased excessive earlier than as soon as once more printing a decrease low final week. Nevertheless, the highest round 4200 additionally occurs to be the vary high which has been holding agency since August 2022. The SPX has been caught in a spread between 3800 and 4200 for the reason that starting of 2023 with no clear breakout in sight. Promoting stress will persist as lengthy we keep under the 4200 deal with with a retest of the 100-day MA at across the 4000 mark wanting all of the extra seemingly. Key intraday help 4100 and 4050 with resistance round 4147 and naturally the 4200 mark.

Nasdaq 100 Day by day Chart – Could 9, 2023


Supply: TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 Index narrowly printed a recent YTD excessive yesterday earlier than closing as a doji candlestick. Now we have seen the Nasdaq futures tick decrease to date forward of the US open as now we have a possible double-top sample in play as nicely. Just like the SPX, Nasdaq has been caught in a 450-point vary between 12850 and 13300 for the reason that starting of April.

As mentioned above now we have technically entered a bull market on the Nasdaq and but draw back stress stays. Rangebound buying and selling alternatives proceed to current themselves nonetheless the longer-term outlook stays murky.

Key intraday help areas lie round 13195, 13107 and 12935 whereas resistance rests across the 13300, 13600 and 14000 ranges respectively.

Written by: Zain Vawda, Market Author for

Contact and comply with Zain on Twitter: @zvawda

DailyFX gives foreign exchange information and technical evaluation on the tendencies that affect the worldwide forex markets.

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