Monday, 10/10/2022 | 00:13 GMT-0
10/10/2022 | 00:13 GMT-0
It appears dangerous on the market.
It has been a tough 12 months for inventory markets and futures are pointing to a different drop in the present day after a powerful non-farm payrolls report. Thursday’s CPI information is a serious threat as properly.
One factor you may argue is that sentiment is already washed out and that the bears are in every single place. I am sympathetic to that and the concept all of the dangerous information is already priced in. On the otherhand, Q3 reporting is coming and the sturdy greenback is an enormous downside for multi-nationals. Earnings estimates have to come back down as properly, and multiples are nonetheless wealthy (although a lot much less so in small caps).
In any case, take a look at these two charts. The primary is S&P 500 seasonality; which clearly exhibits a backside within the first week of October after which power via 12 months finish.
The second is the political calendar. In case you return 70 years and have a look at mid-term years in Presidential cycles, US equities are greater each single time from November throgh April, with a median of 16.2%. I am skeptical of rujnning numerical correlations on politics with shares normally however that is an ideal document.
h/t @SJD10304 and @TalionBen
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